Dalton Camp's Crystal Ball

Dale, in 1976, I had lunch with a man who predicted this collapse of the middle class.

His name was Dalton Camp, who died in 2003. Camp was the media director for the Conservative Party of Canada, and he also ran the Camp Associates advertising agency in Toronto. He clearly knew his market research.

I have not forgotten his prediction! We are now living it.

Camp also expressed concern about institutional failure. He said it is very dangerous for people to lose confidence, faith, trust in their systems of government, economics, politics, etc. In fact, he said, he went into politics in Canada to make sure it did not experience institutional failure!

I have not forgotten this comment. He said he was in World War II, and Germans were shooting at him in Europe. He started to wonder about how he got into this situation. His conclusion was institutional failure of the government in Germany after World War I and its aftermath!

Shortly before she died in 1984, the famous American historian Barbara Tuchman gave an interview. Bill Moyers asked her what her greatest concern for America is, was. She answered, "Institutional failure." She said American had lost the value of "honor," the good opinion of decent people. The result would lead to institutional failure, the lack of trust by the American people in their system.

Note Tuchman and Camp agree. Institutional failure creates a vacuum into which the devil can jump.

The Tea Parties are an expression of this growing disconnect. The State of Vermont has activists who want to pull it out of the Union of states! When this kind of stuff emerges, there is a serious disconnect between the system and the people in it.

I shall never forget that lunch with Dalton Camp. I was going to write his biography; last night, I discovered another person has beaten me to it. I shall have to buy and read it now in any case.

Watch this business about institutional failure. It is very real; it could sadly happen in the near future.

Canada - US - Water Wars

Debbi, your research paper on the growing shortage of potable (drinkable) water on earth is very important. We likely will have water wars in the future. For instance, the Southwest of the USA has no water. How much are we in Wisconsin willing to let them drain off our water tables and the Great Lakes? Your humble servant here would send none, unless the end-users of the water paid for it, good and hard. Water is more valuable than oil in the long run. Also, Canada is fearful of our tapping into its water resources - for free or at low cost. The Pentagon in fact has done "war gaming" scenarios and strategies on how we will respond to this growing shortage of potable water with armed force.

Will we ever be able to solve the worlds water problem is something that every nation should be working on. The problem is world wide, not just here in the United States. In years to come everyone is going to have a foreseeable water problem and we, as a nation, should be working to solve this problem now so in the future we do not have to worry about where our water is coming from. The generations that are coming after us deserve a solution to this problem and it is our responsibility to make sure that they have one. Clean water for everyone is a necessity; not a luxury.

Canada backs away from war with Iran.

The danger of the USA and Israel going to war with Iran in the near future became very real March 30-31, 2010 with the following two, connected announcements.

1) Canada yesterday announced the withdrawal of its coalition soldiers from Afghanistan. The mass news media in the USA has not carried this decision.

2) President Obama announced suddenly today that we are now going to drill oil in formerly restricted offshore areas. This counters his campaign promises and alienates part of his base.

The timing of the two messages is this.

1. Canada does not want to be on the ground in Afghanistan when war spreads to Iran, so it finds itself at war with a country that has not harmed it.

2. The USA put Iran on notice that we do not need its oil if we go to war with it.

The fallout will include the following:

1. The military draft will return to the USA.

2. Terrorism against the USA will escalate inside and outside the USA.

3. Distraction of the American people from the economic Depression on its way.

We are closer to danger today, March 31, 2010 than most Americans realize.

The Maple Leaf Forever - Canada's Future

The Maple Leaf Forever – Paul Rux, Ph.D.

Ramsay Cook, a professor of Canadian history at York University in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, gave a series of guest lectures at Harvard University on Canadian-American relations.

Cook, in fact, argued for American empire, because as long as America is fighting in Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam, etc. it has little time and energy left to mess with Canada!

While the American cat is away the Canadian mouse can play!

Cook argues when America reaches the limits of its capacity to mess with other countries, it will start to return its focus homeward, which will make America dangerous to Canada, for it is on our doorstep.

Cook pointed out how the Romans reached limits of expansion when they ran into German tribes along the Rhine River. Cook believes America is going to reach such limits to expansion, also, good and hard.

Your professor by the way earned a M.A. in Canadian History from the University of Toronto; this has provided him with a unique perspective on America. It helps him to step outside our media bubbles and to gain perspectives from a "distance."

I share Ramsay Cook because he provides a highly creative insight into our American history as it may impact his country. He also draws comparisons with Rome, which seem to fit.

His lectures at Harvard subsequently appeared in a book entitled "The Maple Leaf Forever."

- Dr. Rux

Warren Buffet invests in a trend forecast.

The November 3, 2009 issue of the Wisconsin State Journal, published in Madison, Wisconsin, featured in its business section a story on how Warren Buffett, the second richest person in the USA, wants to purhcase an American railroad system, the second largest in the USA. He is willing to spend over $32 billion to purchase it. This caught my attention, because Buffett has focused on real estate in the past, not transportation. Therefore, I "drilled down" in the article.

Toward its end two facts jumped off the page. One, Buffet forecasts a huge surge in the price of oil, which will diminish the value of trucking as a source of delivery. Two, his proposed railroad acquisition is one of the major backbones for transporting food from the USA to export to China.

How does this apply to Canada?

First, railroads are central to the history of Canada. For instance, the late Pierre Berton's National Dream told the story of the building of the trans-continental Canadian National Railway which "stitched" together the provinces of Canada from sea to sea. This infrastructure still runs east and west, and Vancouver, British Columbia is the logical terminus for this railway system. Vancouver is Canada's gateway to Asia. Canada also has surplus food for export to Asia. Note how this trade goes east and west, not north and south.

If Buffett thinks the future of the economy is with China, which has money galore to spend, unlike the bankrupted USA, Canada, too, because of its railroads can profit from this trend.

Second, Buffet's forecast for a surge in the price of oil ought to enhance the value of the oil in Canada, e.g. the Alberta tar sands. Canada can profit from this surge if the good people of the USA can somehow wrest control of its government from the vampires on Wall Street and in Washington. These vampires work for international oil corporations, not the US people, and are at the drivers of the endless American overseas wars for oil in the Middle East. Of course, China, too needs oil, and it can pay "cash on the barrel" for it. Canada has railroads to move the oil.

In short, the future of Canada's prosperity is east-west, not north-south, trade. Its railroads, food surplus and oil can service Asia as surely as Warren Buffet's proposed railroad system.

Canada has looked to its transcontinental railroad system to hold the country together politically. History is going to repeat. Canada will look also to its transcontinental railroad network to reinvent its economy and detach it from the U.S., which is an economic Titanic.

Order of Canada for Prof. Richard Jarrell

Each year, a select group of Canadians receive a special recognition for outstanding achievements. The recognition is the "Order of Canada." Persons who receive this award forever after can sign their names "O.C." in the tradition of honor awards in England.

On Thusrday October 15, 2009, your humble blogger, Paul Rux, Ph.D. , will nominate his lifelong friend Richard Jarrell, Ph.D. for an "O.C." award. It will start with a request to Manitoba Premier Gary Doer, the next Canadian ambassador to the U.S., when he visits Madison, WI.

Dr. Jarrell and Dr. Rux were classmates in graduate school at the University of Toronto, where they developed a lifelong friendship. Jarrell is Director of the Division of Natural Science at York University in suburban Toronto and an expert on Canadian science and technology.

Jarrell is currently on sabbatical to complete a book on the history of agricultural education in Canada. Rux did his M.A. thesis at the University of Toronto on the first Minister of Agriculture in Canada. Over the years they have shared a passion for Canada, its history and future.

Dr. Jarrell and his wife Martha have a tradition of celebrating New Year's Eve in Thornhill, Ontario, a suburb of Toronto with Dr. Rux and his wife Jane. "We look forward to celebrating the award of the Order of Canada to Richard in Ottawa, Canada in 2010," noted Rux.

US Accuses Canada of Sending 9-11 Terrorists

Border comments spark diplomatic kerfuffle
Updated Tue. Apr. 21 2009 9:43 PM ET
CTV.ca News

Ottawa was rushing to defend its border security on Tuesday amid a diplomatic scuffle with the U.S., which erupted after Washington's homeland security chief suggested that the 9-11 terrorists entered the U.S. through Canada.

U.S. Department of Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano made the comments during a media interview earlier this week, much to the chagrin of Canadians on both sides of the border.

In recent years, Ottawa has invested a great deal of effort into dispelling perceptions among Americans that Canada's border is an easy entry point for terrorists planning attacks on U.S. soil.

"Unfortunately, misconceptions arise on something as fundamental as where the 9-11 terrorists came from," said Michael Wilson, Canada's ambassador in Washington.

"As the 9-11 commission reported in 2004, all of the 9-11 terrorists arrived in the United States from outside North America. They flew to major U.S. airports. They entered the U.S. with documents issued by the United States government and no 9-11 terrorists came from Canada."

Later, Napolitano's staff attempted to tamp down the controversy by blaming the comments on a simple misunderstanding, said Wilson, who was the keynote speaker at the Border Trade Alliance meeting in Washington Tuesday.

"Her comment from her people is that she misunderstood," Wilson said, adding that he was planning a personal meeting with Napolitano in the near future.

The furor began when Napolitano was asked to clarify statements she had made about equal treatment for the Mexican and Canadian borders, despite the fact that a flood of illegal immigrants and a massive drug war are two serious issues on the southern border.

"Yes, Canada is not Mexico, it doesn't have a drug war going on, it didn't have 6,000 homicides that were drug-related last year," she said.

"Nonetheless, to the extent that terrorists have come into our country or suspected or known terrorists have entered our country across a border, it's been across the Canadian border. There are real issues there."

When asked if she was referring to the 9-11 terrorists, Napolitano added: "Not just those but others as well."

However, Public Safety Minister Peter Van Loan downplayed the comments and said that Napolitano is well aware that Canada was not the source of the 9-11 terrorists.

"We spoke about it back in March, and we were sharing a chuckle at the fact that the urban myth does circulate," he told CTV's Power Play.

"Ms. Napolitano understood quite clearly, then and now, that none of the September 11 terrorists came through Canada, as the 9-11 Commission found."

Still, that positive outlook wasn't shared by other Canadian officials.

On Tuesday afternoon, RCMP Commissioner William Elliot expressed frustration with the comments during an interview on CTV's Power Play.

"I was somewhat surprised and disappointed," he said, adding he hopes the misconception has been cleared up.

"I understand and am happy to hear that she has issued a statement acknowledging that that didn't happen."

But Thomas d'Aquino, president of the Canadian Council of Chief Executives, decried Napolitano's comments on Tuesday.

"I am a longstanding friend and ally of the United States, but sometimes failures in our two-way dialogue cause me to shake my head in sadness and dismay," he said in a press release.

"The claim that some of the 9/11 terrorists entered the United States from Canada is, quite simply, a myth - an urban legend that began with a handful of erroneous media reports in the days following the terrorist strikes."

With files from The Canadian Press